With the opening of the Linear Shinkansen (Bullet Train), Haneda Access line, and so on, Shinagawa redevelopment is seeing growing momentum. JR East has calculated that if the Haneda Access Line opened, the new Haneda Station would see 28 million visitors a year. Further, Shinagawa sees just under 70 million people coming to use the Tokaido Shinkansen (Calculated by JR Tokai using 2014's figures), and Shinagawa is the starting station for the Linear Shinkansen. After opening, a large number of users are expected to flock to Shinagawa station, meaning the number of visitors to the station is likely to sharply increase due to the opening of the Haneda Access and Linear Shinkansen lines. In addition, while less likely than these two routes, a line connecting the Keisei line Oshiage station and the Keikyu line Sengakuji station (Directly next to Tokyuu Shinagawa station), called the "Toshin Chokketsu (Downtown Direct) Line" are being considered.
If realised, it would create a major railway route connecting Narita to Tokyo (through Shinagawa), and through to Haneda, further increasing the number of visitors to Shinagawa station.
As is well known, the price of land and real estate are decided by the balance of supply and demand. Given the background of increased visitors to the station, it seems that supply of land around Shinagawa is likely to be very tight. JR East is planning large scale redevelopment focused on the newly built station between Shinagawa and Machida. Centred around the former site of JR Shinagawa Rail yard, the site is vast at 130,000 square meters. JR East is already proceeding with redevelopment plans around Shinagawa station including a 7 structure composite building, planned to open for provisional use before the 2020 olympics
Looking at the posted price and land assessments, Minato-Ku's South Ni-chome area (Shinagawa station is in fact in Minato-Ku, and not Shinagawa-Ku) has seen land price rises for several years, and still seems to be relatively open compared to the Tokyo and Ginza areas. Considering the possibility that Shinagawa station will become a Tokyo hub for both land and sky routes, land and property prices seem likely to rise around Shinagawa station in the future.
Incidentally, the area around the next stop from Shinagawa on the Linear Shinkansen is planned to be the newly established JR Hashimoto station (Sagamihara, Kanagawa Prefecture) still has lots of undeveloped or unmaintained land. Starting with the new installation of the Linear Shinkansen station, there is a high possibility of accelerated redevelopment. It wouldn't be surprising if Hashimoto became a hotspot in the not too distant future.
Jun. 29, 2016